I have spent a significant amount of time with the investor and analyst community over the past few weeks, and in case you didn’t notice, the market shifted in its stance on 10Gb/s Ethernet (10GbE), while many people were not looking. In talking to those who track Emulex, the tone has changed from whether 10GbE and network convergence will happen to when and how? The recent announcements we made with HP and IBM have changed the landscape and demonstrated that the IT world is shifting to the 10GbE side. As IBM, HP, Dell and Cisco drive hard toward fabric-based computing with 10GbE at the core, it is clear that the when of 10GbE is starting now and will be a sustained effort over the next three to four years. On the target side, we continue to see growth and interest in 10GbE iSCSI with new platforms from Dell, NetApp, EMC and other leading OEMs in the offering. The 10GbE market has started its transition; the train has left the station and is building momentum.
In the graphic below, you can see that the 10GbE market for network interface cards (NICs), iSCSI adapters and Fibre Channel over Ethernet (FCoE) Converged Network Adapters will be double what the market is for Fibre Channel by 2013. This is why Emulex has taken a strong 10GbE-first position, created the pay-as-you-go business model and created our vEngine™ technology to offload protocol overhead.
The move is in more than the perceptions of people who track and write about Emulex; it is in the applications that need and demand 10GbE performance and bandwidth. In 2010, there are 10 applications that will drive the demand for 10GbE in all its flavors, pure Ethernet, iSCSI and FCoE:
- Server Virtualization – As the next-generation upgrade cycle drives more virtual machines (VMs) per server, IT managers will need more bandwidth and performance to be shared across those VMs.
- Virtual I/O Solutions – HP, Cisco and IBM all have virtual I/O solutions that take a physical 10GbE pipe and convert it into multiple virtual pipes that can support NIC, iSCSI and FCoE capabilities to lower capital expenses (CAPEX) and operational expenses (OPEX) for servers.
- Desktop Virtualization – As desktop virtualization usage grows, it will become an ideal application for FCoE, because you have many clients requesting server data and bandwidth that requires Quality of Service (QoS) agreements and flexible virtual pipes.
- Network Attached Storage (NAS) – According to IDC’s 2009 Worldwide Disk Storage Systems 2008-2012 Forecast Update, the growth of unstructured file-driven data greatly exceeds structured data growth in the data center and NAS is the fastest-growing storage solution for unstructured data. Moving to 10GbE will help solve the performance bottleneck on servers.
- iSCSI – 10gbE-based iSCSI is fast, reliable and provides a great scale-out story. It is easily routable across the globe, and is the fastest growing segment in the external RAID storage market according to IDC’s 2009 Worldwide Disk Storage Systems 2008-2012 Forecast Update.
- Cloud Computing – Everyone seems to have their own definition of the cloud. However, they will all tell you that the network that connects your data center to the cloud will be based on 10GbE.
- Fabric-based Computing – Every major server vendor has announced some form of fabric-based computing that relies on 10GbE.
- Lower Cost and Complexity – 10GbE drastically reduces the number of cards, cables and switches in data centers (see our Convergenomics™ calculator).
- Data Center Consolidation – In reviewing reports from ESG, The InfoPro, IDC and other industry prognosticators, data center consolidation remains one of the top three initiatives for 2010. We know that next-generation servers running server virtualization will be using 10GbE to help consolidate the data center.
- Network Convergence – The most fundamental contributor to the 10GbE movement is network convergence. It enables IT managers to lower CAPEX by 28%, power and cooling by 42% and cable costs by 80%. It is not rocket science. Network convergence lets you reduce cards, cables and switch ports, so you can do more work with less stuff and people.
The shift to 10GbE is not a shift of tectonic plates; it is a change of tracks that will take that train in a new direction. Done properly, your customers and users will never notice the difference, but your CFO, your competitors and your industry watches will know that you are going in the right direction and are on the right track.
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